Simple prediction rule to minimize fatality of childhood lung infection

What is it about?

Lung infection is the leading cause of death among children under five years old. Advance treatment for patients with severe condition is necessary because sub-optimal treatment contribute to high death rate due to lung infection. However, determining patients who tend to progress into severe condition and need advance treatment is not easy. It often require rigorous diagnostic procedure which is barely available in district hospital. We generate rules based on simple clinical symptoms in early course of the disease, including patient age; heart rate; white blood cell count; blood oxygen and hemoglobin level, that reliably determine which patients have higher risk to die from lung infection.

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Why is it important?

In developing country, there are different level of hospital based on the availability of providing advance patients care. Higher level hospital provides more comprehensive care for severe condition, however the capacity for this advance care is usually limited. Due to resources limitation, treating patient with severe condition in lower hospital level might lead to sub-optimal outcome or even death. In contrast, caring patients with milder condition in higher level hospital will occupy the bed for them who might really need it. Identify patients who have higher risk on developing into severe conditions is important to optimize referral system and prevent death from sub-optimal treatment.