What is it about?

This publication was on the development and validation of a nomogram for the prediction of late culture conversion among MDR-TB patients. The principle of logistic regression-based prediction modeling was applied for the early classification of MDR-TB patients in terms of late culture conversion. The outcome, late culture conversion, was greatly considered for it is an important indicator of the prognosis of MDR-TB patients. It is also a crucial indicator of the transmission of MDR-TB. Hence, early classification of patients as low and high risk in terms of late culture conversion is thought to be vital for appropriate, individualized, and focused care. Besides, the clinical tool developed was a nomogram which is user-friendly, for it is a graphical representation of prognostic determinants with their corresponding scores, and the total probability of the outcome. Moreover, the tool was validated and its clinical utility was assessed using decision curve analysis, and was found to have greater net benefit when compared to other strategies.

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Why is it important?

It is important because the outcome for which the prediction tool was developed is an important variable that indicates the prognosis and potential transmission of MDR-TB. It is evidenced by many studies that patients having late culture conversion are more likely to have poor outcomes as compared to their counterparts. Hence, early risk classification is crucial for the differentiated management and care of MDR-TB patients.


This study is regarded by me and other co-authors as a better and novel study for it has come up with a new clinical tool that physicians and other health professionals can use in the management and care of MDR-TB patients.

Denekew Tenaw Anley
Debre Tabor University

Read the Original

This page is a summary of: Development and validation of a nomogram for the prediction of late culture conversion among multi-drug resistant tuberculosis patients in North West Ethiopia: An application of prediction modelling, PLoS ONE, August 2022, PLOS, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0272877.
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