Assessing alternative indicators for Covid-19 policy evaluation, with a counterfactual for Sweden

What is it about?

Using the synthetic control method, we construct counterfactuals for what would have happened if Sweden had imposed a lockdown during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic. We consider eight different indicators, including a novel one that we construct by adjusting recorded daily COVID-19 deaths to account for weakly excess mortality. Correcting for data problems and re-optimizing the synthetic control for each indicator, we find that a lockdown would have had sizable effects within one week. The much longer delay estimated by two previous studies focusing on the number of positives cases is mainly driven by the extremely low testing frequency that prevailed in Sweden in the first months of the epidemic. We also find that our novel indicator is effective in correcting errors in the COVID-19 deaths series and that the quantitative effects of the lockdown are stronger than previously estimated.

Featured Image

Photo by Glen Carrie on Unsplash

Photo by Glen Carrie on Unsplash

Why is it important?

Our results appear relevant for choosing the timing of future lockdowns and highlight the importance of looking at several indicators to derive robust conclusions.