What is it about?

Most managers use age bands to forecast future hospital admissions, although no one has ever demonstrated that it gives reliable results. This study shows that the absolute number of deaths gives a workable alternative.

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Why is it important?

Forecasting admissions is somewhat fundamental to understanding acute hospital costs.

Perspectives

The nearness-to-death effect shows that 55% of lifetime hospital bed usage occurs in the last year of life, hence, the rationale as to why the trend in the ratio of admissions per death is a useful forecasting tool.

Dr Rodney P Jones
Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting

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This page is a summary of: A case for use of the ratio of admissions per death to predict future hospital admissions, British Journal of Healthcare Management, October 2024, Mark Allen Group,
DOI: 10.12968/bjhc.2023.0141.
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