How many medical beds does a country need?

What is it about?

A new method for international hospital bed comparison is used to investigate medical group bed provision across 37 countries. In England, the medical group of specialties accounts for over 60% of all occupied acute beds. Since 2011 this proportion has risen to over 64%. In 2009, for the 37 countries with data, the ratio of available beds per 1000 deaths had a median value of 198, average 205 and an interquartile range of 158–239. At around 165±5 occupied medical beds per 1000 deaths (at an assumed 95% average occupancy), England has roughly similar medical beds to Albania 178, Italy 177, Israel 173, Turkmenistan and Croatia 167, North Macedonia 161, Estonia 158, Armenia 156, Norway 147, Denmark 145 and Finland 135. The implementation of integrated care in Scotland and Wales since 2009 has led to a 14-unit reduction in the ratio of available medical beds per 1000 deaths up to 2018/2019. The slope of the log relationship between beds per 1,000 deaths and deaths per 1,000 population is relatively low indicating that nearness to death is the major driving force for medical bed requirements.

Featured Image

Photo by Irwan  on Unsplash

Photo by Irwan  on Unsplash

Why is it important?

In England the number of deaths is set to rise by around 1% per annum for the next 40 years, implying that medical bed demand could rise by nearly 40% over the next 40 years. While continued efforts in implementing integrated care may modify this increase, never the less bed demand will rise. If Covid-19 becomes a permanent feature of the infectious landscape then we can expect deaths and hence medical bed demand to excalate faster than anticipated.

Perspectives