A model of how warships use missiles to attack and defend

What is it about?

The salvo model is a set of equations that represents how warships fight each other using missiles. Each side attacks by firing anti-ship cruise missiles, and defends by trying to intercept the enemy' missiles. This research improves the existing model by incorporating randomness. Each attacking missile has a probability of being accurate; each interceptor has a probability of destroying an incoming missile; and each hit causes a varying amount of damage. The model estimate the average loss on each side, the likely range of losses, and the probabilities of any given level of loss. The model is simple enough to put into a spreadsheet.

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Why is it important?

Navies have had centuries of experience fighting each other using guns. But they have had very little combat experience using missiles. The main purpose of this research is to provide naval officers and military analysts with a better understanding of how such battles might unfold in the future.