What is it about?
Expert judgement is used regularly in analysing and managing risks. There are many issues with using expert judgement all surmountable with care. I have discussed those elsewhere, Here I focus on one simple issue. Expert judgement is expensive. It costs a lot to consult and aggregate expert opinion. Thus there is a considerable incentive to reuse expert judgements gathered for one risk analysis in subsequent risk analyses. This paper discusses issues that arise if such reuse is to valid. In particular how do we report expert judgement studies so that they can be reused and, if there are several relevant studies, how do we draw out their combined import?
Featured Image
Perspectives
I have been working on expert judgement since the 1970s. It is pleasings to see that it clearly joining the mainstream of risk (and decision) analytic methods. This paper, albeit with my tongue somewhat in my cheek in some of its parts) emphasises that we still need to develop the methodology, particularly in respect of how we report studies and use them at a later date.
Prof Simon French
University of Warwick
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Expert Judgment, Meta-analysis, and Participatory Risk Analysis, Decision Analysis, June 2012, INFORMS,
DOI: 10.1287/deca.1120.0234.
You can read the full text:
Contributors
The following have contributed to this page
