What is it about?

Analysis has been undertaken of three notable low or zero carbon energy scenario sets developed by, respectively, the British Government’s Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC), and the Centre for Alternative Technology (CAT) enabled a comparative evaluation to be made of each projection and their realism. They reflect alternative modelling approaches that seek to meet the statutory 2050 carbon reduction target (BEIS and UKERC), to that (by CAT) of fully decarbonising Britain by 2030. The spotlight is on the use of dedicated energy crops and their implications, with a particular emphasis on the critical factors and issues of land availability, conversion technologies [including bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS)], and foreign imports. Likewise, the deployment of bioenergy resources may have significant deleterious impacts in terms of direct and indirect land use change, loss of biodiversity and the impairment of eco-system services, and competition with food production. A ‘gap analysis’ leads to recommendations for the improvement of the next generation scenarios and forecasts in order to provide more realistic projections for bioenergy uptake in the UK, although the lessons learned are applicable across much of the industrialised world. It was found that while all three low or zero carbon scenario studies had internal shortcomings from a bioenergy perspective, the analysis by BEIS stood out as having the greatest level of realism due to the account given to many of the critical factors and underlying issues relating to bioenergy uptake.

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Why is it important?

Energy security and climate change mitigation are two of the most significant challenges facing governments in countries across the world. The United Kingdom (UK) government therefore passed the 2008 Climate Change Act that legally commits Britain to reducing ‘greenhouse gas’ (GHG) emissions by 80% over 1990 levels by the year 2050. Bioenergy (as a potentially low carbon and renewable energy source) is recognised as having the potential to contribute to mitigating GHG emissions and, through utilising domestic biomass resources, can help Britain reduce its reliance on fuel imports and thereby enhance energy security. In order to help guide the UK towards achieving its ambitious targets, a number of forecasting studies have been carried out, each proposing different pathways to securing its 2050 GHG emissions reduction target. The extent to which bioenergy can contribute to future energy supply is appraised, given the biomass resources available to Britain.

Perspectives

The three UK energy scenarios that have been evaluated in the present study have each made an important contribution to energy forecasting in the context of a low carbon future out to 2050 and beyond. They are likely to have considerable influence on policymakers [the DECC/BEIS 2050 Calculator and the UKERC Energy 2050 Project], and the engagement with the public (DECC/BEIS 2050 Calculator) or with environmental non-governmental organizations (NGOs) [CAT’s Zero Carbon Britain Project. Decarbonisation targets will need to be tightened in the aftermath of the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement. Indeed, the recent IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C argue that emissions pathways limiting global warming to 1.5°C (with no or limited overshoot) will require “rapid and far-reaching transitions in energy, land, urban and infrastructure (including transport and buildings), and industrial systems”. Bioenergy has only a peripheral role in the three UK energy pathways scenarios evaluated here. Clearly, there are weaknesses in this respect within all three of these UK low carbon pathways as identified via the comparative assessment and associated ‘gap analysis’. However, it is the projections by the DECC/BEIS that can be considered the most realistic based on the level of appraisal given to all the factors and underlying issues relating to the use of bioenergy resources considered in the present study. The UKERC projections rely on existing, unsustainable biofuel processing to produce relatively large amounts of domestic liquid and solid biofuels, as well as significant imports. Finally, the ZCB2030 projection by CAT represents an ‘ethical construct’ that implies equitable sharing of international carbon reduction commitments on a per capita basis by the nation states of the world. This is not reflected in UK climate change legislation or associated international strategies that commonly take 2050 as a practical target timeline. ZCB2030 leads to both ‘deep’ and rapid (2030) decarbonisation through ‘Powering Down’ by the adoption of new technologies and efficient designs, whilst ‘Powering Up’ using large and smaller-scale renewables. It is therefore arguably the least feasible (or unrealistic; perhaps ‘utopian’) low carbon pathway, due primarily to the required lifestyle and land use changes embraced by the scenario that are likely to meet public opposition.

Professor Emeritus Geoffrey P Hammond
University of Bath

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This page is a summary of: Bioenergy utilization for a low carbon future in the UK: the evaluation of some alternative scenarios and projections, May 2019, Springer Science + Business Media,
DOI: 10.1186/s42500-019-0002-9.
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