What is it about?
Every year, respiratory diseases take a significant toll on lives in Bangladesh, often following predictable seasonal patterns. By analyzing seven years of national death records, we developed a mathematical model that can forecast these deaths up to 18 months in advance. Our findings show that deaths consistently peak twice a year: first during the monsoon season (July and August) and again in winter (January). This tool allows health officials to move from reacting to outbreaks to preparing for them. By knowing exactly when the "danger zones" are, the government can strategically time vaccination campaigns, improve air quality controls, and ensure hospitals have enough staff and oxygen during peak months. This research provides a data-driven roadmap to save lives by matching public health action with the natural timing of the disease.
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Why is it important?
This research is critical because it transforms how Bangladesh manages respiratory health by providing a data-driven "early warning system." By identifying a previously underestimated mortality peak during the monsoon season (July-August) alongside the traditional winter surge, the study proves that public health actions like influenza vaccinations must be completed by April to be effective. Having spent six years on the front lines at Dhaka Medical College Hospital—three years in the COVID-19 Emergency and three in the Respiratory OPD—I have seen the high price of being unprepared for these surges. This paper provides the evidence needed to move away from reactive "firefighting" and toward proactive resource planning, ensuring that oxygen, staff, and medicines are strategically positioned before these predictable peaks arrive, ultimately protecting both patients and the healthcare workers who serve them.
Perspectives
My commitment to respiratory health in Bangladesh is rooted in six years of frontline service at Dhaka Medical College Hospital. I spent three years in the COVID-19 Emergency Department, where I managed the country’s most critical cases during its darkest hours, followed by three years in the Respiratory Outpatient Department (OPD). These two roles gave me a unique perspective: the Emergency Room taught me the high cost of being unprepared for surges, while the OPD showed me the predictable, heartbreaking rhythm of seasonal respiratory illness. Watching these patterns repeat for six years—the same overcrowded wards every winter and monsoon—convinced me that we need more than just reactive treatment. We need a 'radar.' This research is my effort to turn years of clinical observation into a predictive tool. By forecasting these mortality peaks, I want to ensure that our healthcare system can shift from crisis management to proactive preparation, saving lives by being ready before the next wave of patients arrives at our doors.
Dr. Pratyay Hasan
Dhaka Dental College and Hospital
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Temporal trends and forecasting of respiratory mortality in Bangladesh: A SARIMA model for seasonal mortality risk and public health action, Journal of Public Health Research, October 2025, SAGE Publications,
DOI: 10.1177/22799036251395248.
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