What is it about?
We all know how to support statements of fact using evidence and assumptions. But how do you support statements what about what could happen compared to what will happen in the future? Almost anything is possible so how to distinguish statements of what is merely possible from those that are plausible--i.e., have some measurable probability of actually occurring. Baseline analysis is a method for using the traditional rhetorical analysis of evidence and assumptions to distinguish between the merely possible and the plausible.
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Why is it important?
Scenarios are the preferred method for describing the future in the emerging fields of futures studies and strategic foresight. Scenarios are created using disciplined imagination, but what is the discipline involved. Baseline analysis provides the discipline.
Perspectives
Futures Studies will never become recognized as a professional field, as it should, unless its practitioners can show some degree of empirical support for its scenarios.
Peter Bishop
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This page is a summary of: Baseline Analysis: The Epistemology of Scenario Support, World Futures Review, May 2017, SAGE Publications,
DOI: 10.1177/1946756717705962.
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