The ASHA model: An alternative to the Markovian approach to housing vacancy chains: An application to the study of population in Lille (Nord, France)

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By offering an alternative to Markovian approaches, the ASHA model constitutes a global approach to the calculation of vacancy chains, treating them not as isolated flows in a local housing system, but as a process that evolves in relation to the population renewals that they generate. The model is therefore a way of effecting a study that is centred simultaneously on changes in habitat types, in territories and in overall population. In this respect, it would seem to offer an innovative and effective tool for guiding decisions and achieving a global and dynamic understanding of the operation of habitat systems. One of the great strengths of the model is therefore to make complex housing systems understandable. Its application illustrates the inertia of Housing systems. Without a fine-grained understanding of how they work, it would seem difficult to establish a policy capable of changing current trends. This inertia implies that housing programmes, by failing to make in-depth changes to the organization of the local system, support – and even often reinforce – its effects

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