HIV/AIDS, Life Expectancy, and the Opportunity Cost Model of Civil War

What is it about?

The paper argues that as life expectancy declines, people are more willing to engage in risky behavior, such as fighting in a civil war. The paper tests this theory using a tragic natural experiment: the HIV/AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. It finds that decreases in life expectancy caused by the disease increase the probability of civil war.

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Why is it important?

From an academic perspective, the results validate the idea that individuals weigh the pros and cons of fighting before deciding to rebel. From a practical perspective, the results show that public-health interventions have an additional benefit - reducing the probability of civil war - which should be taken into account when considering their cost effectiveness.