Is international tourism truly global? New evidence says no

What is it about?

This study asks a simple but important question: Is international tourism truly global, or do people mostly travel to nearby countries? Using data from 190 countries over 26 years (1995-2021), we mapped the flow of tourists between nations. Think of it like social networks, but for travel patterns between countries. Our findings challenge a common assumption. Despite cheaper flights, digital booking platforms, and increasing globalization, tourism remains predominantly regional. People still prefer destinations that are geographically close and culturally familiar. We found that tourism "communities" (groups of countries that share most visitors with each other) align strongly with geographic regions. These regional clusters have actually strengthened over time, not weakened. The COVID-19 pandemic further reinforced this regional pattern. This matters because tourism marketing and policy often assume a global audience. Our research suggests that targeting regional markets may be more effective than expensive global campaigns.

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Photo by Andrew Stutesman on Unsplash

Photo by Andrew Stutesman on Unsplash

Why is it important?

Challenges conventional wisdom: Tourism is often viewed as a beneficiary of globalization, with the assumption that people increasingly travel to distant destinations. Our research provides the first large-scale empirical evidence that this assumption is wrong—tourism is becoming MORE regional, not more global. Timely policy implications: With tourism recovering post-COVID-19, governments and businesses are deciding where to invest marketing budgets. Our findings suggest that regional collaboration and targeted marketing within "tourism communities" will be more effective than global campaigns. Novel methodology: This is the first study to use network science tools (community detection algorithms) to identify natural tourism clusters, rather than relying on predefined geographic regions. This approach reveals patterns that traditional analysis misses. Practical impact: Airlines planning routes, hotels targeting markets, and tourism boards allocating resources can use these insights to make more informed decisions. Understanding that tourism flows follow regional patterns helps optimize infrastructure spending and marketing investments. Long-term perspective: Spanning nearly three decades, including the COVID-19 pandemic, our data captures how tourism structures have evolved and how they responded to a major global shock.

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