What is it about?
Exploring the predictability of short-term ensemble forecasts of supercells. Specifically, the predictability of the separate components such as the mid- and low-level mesocyclones and rainfall.
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Why is it important?
This work is directly related to NOAA Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) project; an initiative to produce probabilistic guidance for severe weather hazards on the watch-to-warning timescale. Better understanding the limits of storm-scale predictability will eventually translate to the best use of the WoF probabilistic guidance.
Perspectives
Past studies have used non-flow-dependent errors or errors unrepresentative of storm-scale analysis IC uncertainty. The initial conditions (IC) used in our ensemble forecasts were generated from real-data storm-scale analyses, which separates it from past studies of storm-scale predictability. Using the flow-dependent IC errors which are representative of real-data storm scale analyses increasing the credibility that the discovered predictability limits are representative of the anticipated predictability in operations.
Montgomery L Flora
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Practical Predictability of Supercells: Exploring Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Initial Condition Spread, Monthly Weather Review, August 2018, American Meteorological Society,
DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-17-0374.1.
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