Life Cycle of Major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in the Southern Hemisphere from a Multimillennial GCM Simulation

What is it about?

The stratosphere can influence the weather at the surface for several weeks or even months. The strongest stratospheric influence occurs during events called Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, where the polar stratosphere warms by many tens of degrees in just a few days. However, these strong events are rare in the Southern Hemisphere. In this paper, we use a 10,000-year long climate model simulation to study the evolution of such events, from the relevant precursors to the expected impact after the event.

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Photo by Matteo Fusco on Unsplash

Photo by Matteo Fusco on Unsplash

Why is it important?

The stratosphere can influence surface weather for weeks to months and even seasons, which means there is a strong potential for more accurate seasonal forecasts through the stratosphere. But to make use of this potential source of additional information on longer timescales, we need to understand what we should expect, and which conditions might help create the right conditions for the occurrence of stratospheric influence.