What is it about?

The state of El Nino can change which phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation is most favorable for tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the Atlantic. While most environmental conditions such as vorticity and sea surface pressures don't appear to impact weekly TC activity there is a pattern of vertical wind shear that is associated with higher Atlantic TC activity.

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Why is it important?

These findings can be used to improve forecasts of TC activity weeks in advance.


I think the most useful finding in this paper is the shear pattern. It suggests that subseasonal predictability of Atlantic hurricanes may be related to PV streamer events (mid-lattitude influences on the tropics).

Kurt Hansen
University of Miami

Read the Original

This page is a summary of: Identifying Subseasonal Variability Relevant to Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity, Weather and Forecasting, September 2020, American Meteorological Society, DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-19-0260.1.
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