What is it about?

We evaluated the quality of lightning forecasts made by the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh weather forecast system. Forecast quality is presented in terms of the fractions skill score for the western, central, and eastern United States.

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Why is it important?

Forecasts of lightning potential are relied on by the aviation industry, wildfire managers, severe storm warning systems, and many other. Knowing the limitations of forecasting thunderstorms is important for making decisions when the safety and success of certain activities depend on the hazardous weather associated with thunderstorms.


I feel like this work introduces some possibilities of what can be learned when we look at weather data from a "Big Data" perspective. There are years of high-resolution weather model data that can be used to evaluate the abilities and limitations of our modeling systems. With that knowledge, we can identify shortcomings that could direct future research.

Brian K Blaylock
University of Utah

Read the Original

This page is a summary of: Comparison of Lightning Forecasts from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model to Geostationary Lightning Mapper Observations, Weather and Forecasting, January 2020, American Meteorological Society, DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-19-0141.1.
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