What is it about?

Politicians, adaptation and mitigation planners, and society as a whole need reliable estimates of future climate change and related uncertainties. In climate research a range of different methods, to create such estimates, exists. Here, we create a consisted framework to allow an apples-to-apples comparison between their results. We, for the first time, investigate such a multitude of methods, summarizing their key features, discussing their assumptions, and presenting their estimates of future climate change.

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Why is it important?

Our comparison of different estimates of future climate change allows to identify regions where all (or most) of the methods agree. We argue that such an agreement is a sign for robustness and that we can have increased confidence in the results in such cases. In turn, we also expose cases where the methods diverge. For such cases we caution against simply using one of the methods and we provide guidelines for users on how to proceed.


This study brings together experts from a total of 10 institutions across Europe. Beside the scientific insights gained, we have also build up close collaborations and we are looking forward to further perusing some of the still open questions in this field - stay tuned!

Lukas Brunner
ETH Zurich

Read the Original

This page is a summary of: Comparing Methods to Constrain Future European Climate Projections Using a Consistent Framework, Journal of Climate, September 2020, American Meteorological Society,
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0953.1.
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