What is it about?
We investigate if air pollution is slowing down the melt of Arctic sea ice. This damping effect from airborne particles is well observed by changes air temperature e.g. after vulcanic eruptions. We are studying if this effect is also present in sea ice observations. We also raise the question what would happen to the sea ice if the air was cleaner and the air pollution would not cause this damping effect. We are trying to calculate how much more ice would have melted away in the absence of air pollution just from the excess of greenhouse-gases in the atmosphere.
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Why is it important?
If a reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions would be accompanied by a reduction in air pollution as well, the anticipated slow down in the decline of Arctic sea ice might not have the full effect. In other words, cleaner air would likely lead to an additional sea ice decline from a reduced cooling effect from those particles.
Perspectives
This work shows that the aerosol cooling effect is present in observed records of Arctic sea ice. It has been know for a long time but for the first time we formally detect this signal in observations. The numbers of how much this aerosol cooling effect is offsetting greenhouse-gas induced warming/ melt might be lower if this study would be repeated with the new version of CMIP. However, our findings point to an interesting side effect of our ambition to reduce emissions.
Bennit Mueller
University of Victoria
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Attribution of Arctic Sea Ice Decline from 1953 to 2012 to Influences from Natural, Greenhouse Gas, and Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing, Journal of Climate, October 2018, American Meteorological Society,
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-17-0552.1.
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