What is it about?
Risk index of loss-of-load expectation is traditionally used to determine generation adequacy. However, be-cause responsibility of generation installation and demand increases with different entities, both generation and load need to be examined to evaluate the resource adequacy of today’s deregulated power systems. An electric utility’s main concern is to plan, design, operate and maintain its power supply to provide an acceptable level of reliability to its users. This clearly requires that standards of reliability be specified and used in all three sectors of the power system, i.e., generation, transmission and distribution. Reliability indices have been defined for the three sectors separately as well as for the bulk power system. Reliability criteria may be determined at the selected load points in the system for different combination of generators and transmission line failures. This paper presents an effective simulation method for the reliability assessment of reliability index, loss-of-load expectation (LOLE). This method is applied to Bangladesh Power System (BPS). BPS has a total installed capacity of around 6550 MW. The maximum demand of BPS is about 5700 MW. The relevant data of the generators and hourly load profiles are collected from the National Load Dispatch Center (NLDC) of Bangladesh and reliability index ‘LOLE’ is assessed for the last six years.
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Why is it important?
We introduce an effective simulation-based approach for evaluating the Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) to assess generation adequacy in the context of a deregulated and growing power system like the Bangladesh Power System (BPS). This is important in today’s energy landscape where responsibility for both generation and demand is distributed across multiple entities, making traditional deterministic planning approaches insufficient. Two significant contributions of this work are: a) the application of LOLE—a probabilistic reliability index—to real operational data (including generator profiles and hourly load curves) spanning six years from BPS, and b) the demonstration that reliability indices can and should be used across generation, transmission, and distribution sectors to ensure balanced and dependable power delivery in systems under rapid development. This study is timely as Bangladesh continues to expand its grid capacity and renewable energy integration, making resource adequacy planning increasingly vital for long-term energy security.
Perspectives
I hope this article encourages more readers to see system reliability not as a niche concern for utility engineers but as a foundational pillar of modern society. It’s easy to overlook the complexity behind having power at the flick of a switch, yet what we explore here—probabilistic simulation and long-term adequacy assessment—is what helps keep the lights on for millions. Personally, I found great value in combining real-world operational data with simulation models to better reflect the uncertainties that characterize modern energy systems. More than anything, I hope this work inspires others to explore how smart, data-informed planning can create power systems that are not just larger, but smarter and more resilient.
Md Khurram Monir Rabby
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: An Effective Simulation Technique to Evaluate Loss of Load Expectation, Journal Electrical and Electronic Engineering, January 2013, Science Publishing Group,
DOI: 10.11648/j.jeee.20130101.13.
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