Fool Me Twice, Shame on Me: Security Guarantees, Commitment Problems and the Problem of Peace through Victory in Ukraine

What is it about?

Peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war is so difficult to achieve because both sides fear that a peace agreement will fail, leaving them worse off than before. The importance of the "commitment problem" has been under appreciated in analyses and policy recommendations. The paths to peace that are easiest to envision--such as a ceasefire with no further conditions--are the least likely to endure. "Peace through victory," in which Ukraine achieves it main war objectives and becomes a member of NATO is the outcome most likely to lead to long-term peace, but it will be extremely difficult to achieve. This tradeoff presents unappreciated dilemmas for Ukraine and its western allies. In particular, Ukraine resists some peace proposals not because it rejects the terms, but because it fears the position it will be in later when Russia violates them. Unless western policies take the commitment problem into account, peace will continue to be elusive.

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