The Strategic Choices of Secondary States: the Philippines and Vietnam under the Shadow of U.S.–China Rivalry

What is it about?

This article examines the strategic choices of secondary states in East Asia, focusing on the Philippines and Vietnam amidst the intensifying rivalry between the U.S. and China. The core objective is to investigate how these states navigate great power competition to maximize their self-interests. Drawing on game theory, the study develops a theoretical framework that models three strategic options: full alignment with the U.S., full alignment with China, and hedging. This model highlights the trade-offs between economic benefits and security guarantees that secondary states must weigh under asymmetric interdependence. Empirically, the article conducts comparative case studies of the Philippines and Vietnam since 2016, a period marked by heightened U.S.-China strategic competition. The findings reveal that both states have adopted hedging strategies, engaging with China economically while maintaining security ties with the U.S. This dual approach allows them to avoid overdependence on either side while securing moderate and stable payoffs. The article also highlights how China’s participation in global initiatives such as BRICS has reshaped its role in the post-Cold War global political economy. These platforms offer alternative channels for development cooperation, boosting China’s appeal to secondary states and complicating their strategic calculations.

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