An Ex-Ante Analysis of the Effect of Morocco’s Commitment to African Continental Free Trade Area on Trade with African Countries, Using Panel Data

What is it about?

This paper conducts a forward-looking analysis to understand the impact of forming regional blocs, specifically a free trade area, on trade among member countries. The focus is on Morocco's participation in the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), an area with limited existing research, especially concerning free trade zones. Using empirical analysis and econometric methods, we evaluate the potential effects of Morocco joining AfCFTA on its trade balance with Sub-Saharan Africa. The findings indicate that a 1% reduction in customs tariffs for Morocco's exports to Sub-Saharan countries could lead to a 0.6% increase in exports. Similarly, a 1% reduction in tariffs for Morocco's imports from Sub-Saharan countries could result in a 0.45% rise in imports, ultimately improving Morocco's trade balance with Sub-Saharan Africa.

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