Scenario analysis of long-term growth prospects in Asia

What is it about?

This paper presents estimates of potential output for xx Asian economies using the production-function methodology. Historical contributions to potential output growth from capital accumulation, increased labor supply (population growth, higher participation, and lower unemployment), structural change (increases due to the increasing size of higher-productivity sectors) and total-factor productivity. A series of forward-looking scenarios are presented. In these scenarios the working-age population is assumed to grow as per UN population projections. In the business as usual scenario, investment and TFP growth continues as during the past 15 years, while other scenarios indicate the additional contribution to growth that might be expected if countries investment, TFP and or structural change evolved at the same pace as in South Korea.

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