What is it about?
The slope of the yield curve is shown to be a good indicator of subsequent real activity and inflation. Models that predict real activity are somewhat more stable than those that predict inflation, and binary models -- predicting either recessions of inflation pick-ups -- are more stable than continuous models.
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Why is it important?
The use of the slope of the yield curve to predict recessions may be employed with a certain confidence in their continued reliability.
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This page is a summary of: How Stable is the Predictive Power of the Yield Curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States, The Review of Economics and Statistics, August 2003, The MIT Press,
DOI: 10.1162/003465303322369777.
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