Probabilistic modelling of multiple wind power plants

What is it about?

The use of renewable non-conventional energy sources, as wind electric power energy and photovoltaic solar energy, has introduced uncertainties in the performance of bulk power systems. The power system availability has been employed as a useful tool for planning power systems; however, traditional methodologies model generation units as a component with two states: in service or out of service. Nevertheless, this model is not useful to model wind power plants for availability assessment of the power system.

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Why is it important?

This paper used a statistical representation to model the uncertainty of power injection of wind power plants based on the central moments: mean value, variance, skewness and kurtosis. In addition, this paper proposed an availability assessment methodology based on application of this statistical model, and based on the 2m+1 point estimate method the availability assessment is performed. The methodology was tested on the IEEE-RTS assuming the connection of two wind power plants and different correlation among the behavior of these plants.