Climate Change Effects on Employment in the Nigeria’s Agricultural Sector

What is it about?

The study explores how climate change impacts employment in Nigeria's agricultural sector. Nigeria's agriculture relies heavily on rain-fed smallholder farms, making it vulnerable to climate variations. Historical data indicate rising temperatures and erratic rainfall since the 1970s, which are projected to worsen, reducing crop yields and threatening smallholder farming viability. The study uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to analyze data from 1990 to 2020. It finds that initially, less rainfall increases employment as more labour is needed under dry conditions. However, prolonged droughts lead to significant job losses. Rising temperatures consistently decrease farm employment by reducing yields and incomes. To address these issues, the study suggests adopting climate-smart agricultural practices and resilience-building strategies to protect rural livelihoods​

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