What is it about?

Sea level rise is accelerating. The pace has doubled — from 2mm/year since 1960 to 4 mm/year since 2005. ▸ Ocean warming is a leading cause. Thermal expansion of seawater accounts for 43% of the rise since 1960. ▸ Melting ice and glaciers contribute most of the rest. Mountain glaciers (27%), Greenland Ice Sheet (15%), Antarctic Ice Sheet (12%), and land water storage (3%) round out the picture. ▸ A long-standing mystery is solved. Instruments' bias corrections and improved estimate methods have closed the budget gap that emerged after 2015.

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Why is it important?

Global average sea level has risen by 2.06 millimeters per year since 1960 — but with the pace doubling in recent decades to reach 3.94 millimeters per year between 2005 and 2023. Ocean warming is the largest driver, accounting for 43 percent of the rise as warmer water expands and takes up more space. The study also explains why global sea level rise accelerated. Since 1960, the primary contributors have been accelerated ocean warming and reduced land water storage. In recent decades, since 1993, ice loss, including the accelerated melting of glaciers and ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctic, has become increasingly important. These worrisome trends are likely to persist over the coming decades.

Perspectives

For years, there has been a frustrating gap between how much the oceans were observed to be rising and how much we could explain from the individual causes. This work shows that, with better instruments, processes, and smarter analysis, this knowledge gap can be closed.

Dr Kevin Trenberth
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

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This page is a summary of: Improved closure of the global mean sea level budget from observational advances since 1960, Science Advances, May 2026, American Association for the Advancement of Science,
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aea0652.
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