What is it about?
The paper quantifies the cost of providing sufficient infrastructure to keep pace with population growth, and explains how this is a considerable drag on the economy, far outweighing the anticipated burden due to older age profiles.
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Why is it important?
Dominant economic theories treat population growth as benign, with burdens off-set by greater productive capacity. Such theories are at odds with empirical evidence, where faster-growing countries and regions perform worse. By calculating the recurrent costs attributable to population growth rate, the observed penalty of population growth is explained (to an extent that demographic dividend theory does not).
Perspectives
This is a new methodological perspective that is missing from contemporary discourse on population growth. It is not only a carrying-capacity issue of whether there are (or will be) too many people, but the growth rate itself dominates impacts. The findings suggest there is no conflict between environmental, social and economic goals, as all are improved by reducing population growth.
Dr Jane N O'Sullivan
University of Queensland
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: THE BURDEN OF DURABLE ASSET ACQUISITION IN GROWING POPULATIONS, Economic Affairs, February 2012, Wiley,
DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0270.2011.02125.x.
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