What is it about?
Thia article was - to my knowledge - the only academic article that predicted Brexit. In the article - which was published four months BEFORE the referendum - it is predicted that Cameron would lose the referendum by 4 per cent. He lost by 3.9. Basically, th article shows - using simple statistics - that politics can be an exact science!
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Why is it important?
This is important methodologically as it shows that the social sciences can be a bit like the hard natural sciences. But, above all, it is important because it would have helped many people plan for the future.
Perspectives
This article was mentioned in the press but ignored by politicians. Some told me 'well, what do you really know about this?' Well, I guess the proof was in the pudding.....
Professor Matt H. QVORTRUP
Coventry University
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Referendums on Membership and European Integration 1972-2015, The Political Quarterly, January 2016, Wiley,
DOI: 10.1111/1467-923x.12224.
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