What is it about?
Thia article was - to my knowledge - the only academic article that predicted Brexit. In the article - which was published four months BEFORE the referendum - it is predicted that Cameron would lose the referendum by 4 per cent. He lost by 3.9. Basically, th article shows - using simple statistics - that politics can be an exact science!
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Why is it important?
This is important methodologically as it shows that the social sciences can be a bit like the hard natural sciences. But, above all, it is important because it would have helped many people plan for the future.
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This page is a summary of: Referendums on Membership and European Integration 1972-2015, The Political Quarterly, January 2016, Wiley,
DOI: 10.1111/1467-923x.12224.
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