A Preliminary Study of Grade Forecasting by Students

  • Grade Forecasting
  • Michael J. Armstrong
  • Decision Sciences Journal of Innovative Education, April 2013, Wiley
  • DOI: 10.1111/dsji.12003

What if you could find out your final grade before your course ends?

What is it about?

I helped undergraduate students mathematically forecast their own final grades while the course was still underway. 29% of the students said the forecast was lower than they had expected, while only 6% said it was higher. 47% subsequently said they were now studying more than planned, while 3% said they were studying less. Surprisingly, the difference between the forecast and their expectation did not influence their studying decision.

Why is it important?

Many people are overly optimistic about their own learning. The goal of the grade forecasting exercise is to help students better understand their actual progress.


Dr. Michael J. Armstrong
Brock University

I got the idea for this research from my own classroom teaching experience.

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