What is it about?
We estimate how blackout risk varies with blackout size from historical blackout data. Although large blackouts are rarer than small blackouts, they cost more and overall their risk is larger. The probability of large blackouts is small but not negligible because of cascading failure: If some components fail it is more likely that further components fail.
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Why is it important?
Although large blackouts are rare, very complicated and hard to analyze, from a risk point of view they need to be mitigated.
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This page is a summary of: North American Blackout Time Series Statistics and Implications for Blackout Risk, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, November 2016, Institute of Electrical & Electronics Engineers (IEEE),
DOI: 10.1109/tpwrs.2015.2510627.
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