Evaluating Power Grid Reliability During Geomagnetic Disturbances

What is it about?

Geomagnetic disturbances are caused by solar activity that disrupts the Earth’s magnetic field and induce low-frequency currents in power systems. These geomagnetically induced currents can saturate transformers, increase reactive power demand, and create voltage stability problems. Although such events are rare, their potential impact on grid reliability can be severe and is often not fully captured in conventional reliability studies. This paper introduces an integrated reliability assessment framework that explicitly incorporates geomagnetic disturbances into power system reliability analysis. Using more than 90 years of historical geomagnetic data, storms are modeled probabilistically based on their frequency, duration, and intensity. These models are embedded within a Monte Carlo simulation framework, enabling reliability studies to transition between normal operating conditions and geomagnetic disturbance conditions and systematically evaluate their effects on grid reliability.

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Photo by Mike Newbry on Unsplash

Photo by Mike Newbry on Unsplash

Why is it important?

Geomagnetic disturbances represent a low-probability but high-impact risk that can stress power systems in ways not captured by standard reliability models. Without explicitly accounting for these events, utilities and regulators may underestimate vulnerability to voltage instability, load curtailment, and cascading impacts during extreme space weather. By integrating geomagnetic disturbances into reliability assessment in a structured and probabilistic way, this work supports more realistic risk evaluation, resilience planning, and informed regulatory decision-making for extreme but consequential grid threats.

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