What is it about?
The probabilistic reliability assessment of large power systems is a very complicated and computation intensive task. So the standards of reliability be specified and used in all three sectors of the power system, i.e. generation, transmission and distribution. Since the forced outage rates (FOR) of generating plants is actually uncertain, security and reliability are two important challenges in modern power networks. That is why the reliability of a power system is always a major concern to power system planners. Because of different loss of load probability in different buses, it is necessary to change the prices of customers pay considering their loss of load probability (LOLP). This paper presents an effective simulation method for the reliability assessment of reliability index, LOLP by using segmentation method. This method is applied to Bangladesh power system (BPS) by considering uncertainties of generation. The segmentation method is used because of its computational efficiency. BPS has a total installed capacity of about 6545 MW. The maximum demand of BPS is about 5700 MW. The relevant data of the generators and hourly load profiles are collected from the National Load Dispatch Center (NLDC) of Bangladesh and the reliability index `LOLP' is assessed for the last six years (2007-2012).
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Why is it important?
We apply a segmentation method to perform a probabilistic reliability assessment of the Bangladesh Power System (BPS), focusing on the Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) as a key reliability index. This is important because assessing reliability in large power systems is computationally challenging, and the uncertainty of forced outage rates (FOR) in generation units adds complexity to planning and operation. Two significant contributions of this study are: a) the use of the computationally efficient segmentation method, which makes probabilistic reliability analysis feasible for a large-scale power system like BPS with an installed capacity of 6545 MW and varying hourly load profiles, and b) the longitudinal evaluation of LOLP over six years (2007-2012) using actual data from the National Load Dispatch Center, providing a realistic and actionable reliability profile for the system. These insights help power system planners understand risks better and support pricing strategies that reflect customers' varying reliability experiences.
Perspectives
I hope this article makes what might appear as an intricate, heavily technical topic—like power system reliability assessment—feel more relevant and impactful to a broader audience. Reliable electricity supply is fundamental to modern life, yet the methods behind ensuring it are often hidden behind technical jargon. For me, this work highlights the essential role of smart computational methods to make complex system analysis practical, especially in developing countries like Bangladesh where demand is rising rapidly. More than anything, I hope this study encourages readers to appreciate the careful planning and sophisticated modeling that underpins the dependable energy services we often take for granted.
Md Khurram Monir Rabby
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This page is a summary of: Reliability assessment of Bangladesh power system using segmentation method, May 2013, Institute of Electrical & Electronics Engineers (IEEE),
DOI: 10.1109/iciev.2013.6572617.
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