What is it about?

1. The field of artificial intelligence has gained a significant attention and many counties claim to be the leaders in the field. The leading countries can easily be determined by conducting a statistical (i.e., bibliometric) analysis of research data records on artificial intelligence by year, country, language, and organisation. 2. The study synthesised existing knowledge and forecast the future steps towards achieving a more evolved artificial intelligence. The study discusses the future evolution of artificial intelligence and the likelihood that (in the next 60 years) AI ‘superintelligence’ would trigger a catastrophic event for humanity.

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Why is it important?

Some of the results of this research study are what we would expect, other results present a glimpse on how things might change in the near-term future. For example, the future value of AI will be limited to the human creative capabilities, and lower investments in human-AI capabilities with inevitably result with lower value of the future AI systems.


Considering that defence has been one of the main sectors investing in AI, this can result with some dangerous future AI systems for humanity. But it also means that the development of ‘superintelligence’ is hindered by the human abilities and limitations. In other words, the predictions from the early 60s in terms of super intelligent AI never materialised and given the current limitations of human-AI systems, it is quite likely that in the next 60 years, we won’t see the evolution of AI into ‘superintelligence’ that can trigger a catastrophic event for humanity.

Dr Petar Radanliev
University of Oxford

Read the Original

This page is a summary of: Forecasts on Future Evolution of Artificial Intelligence and Intelligent Systems, IEEE Access, January 2022, Institute of Electrical & Electronics Engineers (IEEE),
DOI: 10.1109/access.2022.3169580.
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