Expert elicitation to assess real-world productivity gains in laser powder bed fusion

What is it about?

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) enables the production of components with complex geometries and using materials that are difficult to process conventionally. Nonetheless, applications of LBPF are limited by high cost and low production rate. There is extensive research on strategies to improve productivity without sacrificing part quality. However, the effectiveness of these strategies in real-world applications is not well-documented; nor are there straightforward analytical approaches to estimate their effectiveness. We perform an expert elicitation with 18 experts to quantify the productivity gains from using laser beam shaping, multi-laser printing, and the use of large build chambers to print larger size parts. We find that experts believe that increasing part size substantially increases uncertainty in build success rates with area playing a larger role than height. Beam shaping is expected to provide limited print time improvement (4% reduction) while improving part quality. Switching from one to two lasers is expected to provide at best 25\% print time improvement but degrade part quality. We show that cost uncertainty due to uncertainty in build success rates for large parts dominates benefits expected to be derived from laser beam shaping or multi laser printing.

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