The NFL as “not for long”: the NFL draft and teams’ discount rates

What is it about?

We have presented a methodology for calculating NFL teams’ discount rates, and with this methodology we have calculated the discount rates for a set of NFL Draft trades over the last decade. Our calculated annualized discount rates are quite steep, averaging more than 100%. Discount rates of this magnitude suggest that teams face strong pressures to win now by devaluing the future relative to the present and steeply discounting the value of future-year draft picks for trade purposes. Our results also suggest that teams do not improve their near-term fortunes by trading future-year draft picks at a steep discount.

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