Property market modelling and forecasting: simple vs complex models

Arvydas Jadevicius, Simon Huston
  • Journal of Property Investment & Finance, July 2015, Emerald
  • DOI: 10.1108/jpif-08-2014-0053

Wiser investments need better forecasts

What is it about?

When predicting prices, investors can adopt two approaches. Time series models use a 'rear view mirror of past price behavior to extrapolate whereas structural models identify impact of underlying market drivers (factors). Both have limitation but a blend of both can cut risk making the wrong investment call.

Why is it important?

Robust forecasts incorporate or consider a range of approaches.

Perspectives

Dr Simon Hugh Huston
Coventry University

Market evolution is notoriously tricky to predict An understanding of alternate modeling perspectives can help avoid costly mistakes.

Read Publication

http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jpif-08-2014-0053

The following have contributed to this page: Dr Simon Hugh Huston and Dr Arvydas Jadevicius