Property market modelling and forecasting: simple vs complex models

Arvydas Jadevicius, Simon Huston
  • Journal of Property Investment & Finance, July 2015, Emerald
  • DOI: 10.1108/jpif-08-2014-0053

Wiser investments need better forecasts

What is it about?

When predicting prices, investors can adopt two approaches. Time series models use a 'rear view mirror of past price behavior to extrapolate whereas structural models identify impact of underlying market drivers (factors). Both have limitation but a blend of both can cut risk making the wrong investment call.

Why is it important?

Robust forecasts incorporate or consider a range of approaches.


Dr Simon Hugh Huston
Coventry University

Market evolution is notoriously tricky to predict An understanding of alternate modeling perspectives can help avoid costly mistakes.

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The following have contributed to this page: Dr Simon Hugh Huston and Dr Arvydas Jadevicius