What is it about?
This research investigates how agricultural development influenced the export structures of 44 Sub-Saharan African nations between 1995 and 2014. It explores whether relying on agriculture, as opposed to solely industrial focus, helps these economies diversify and improve the quality of their global trade. The study reveals that agriculture’s impact is a double-edged sword. Simply increasing the agricultural sector's share of the economy—through higher employment or its overall contribution to GDP—actually tends to restrict diversification. This happens because it keeps exports concentrated on a few basic raw materials. However, the key positive driver is agricultural productivity. Improving how efficiently people work in agriculture reduces export concentration and enhances the quality of goods produced. High productivity allows surplus labour to move into manufacturing and services, sparking a broader economic transformation. To improve export structures, the paper recommends that governments move beyond traditional farming by investing in modern technology and vocational training to boost labour productivity. The goal is to create a synergy where a high-performing agricultural sector supports local industry, enabling African countries to offer a wider variety of higher-quality products on the world stage.
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Why is it important?
This research is both unique and timely because it directly addresses the empirical paradox currently facing Sub-Saharan Africa: while many nations are doubling down on agricultural development to build economic resilience against global shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war , conventional trade theory often argues that such a focus traps countries in low-value export cycles. Our work stands out by moving beyond simple sector size to specifically evaluate the "transformative power" of agricultural labour productivity. While other studies focus primarily on manufacturing, we use a robust dataset of 44 countries and advanced econometric methods to prove that increasing productivity—not just the size of the sector—is the true catalyst for diversifying exports and improving product quality. This paper provides actionable, data-driven insights for policymakers on how to modernise agriculture to fuel broader industrial growth. By offering a fresh, evidence-based perspective on a long-standing debate, this work is positioned to attract a wide readership among economists, development experts, and regional strategists seeking practical solutions for structural economic change in Africa.
Perspectives
When we first began this research, we were confronted with a persistent dilemma in development economics. For decades, the standard advice to Sub-Saharan African nations has been to pivot away from the land and toward the factory floor. The narrative was simple: "industrialise or stay poor." Yet, looking at the reality on the ground, we saw millions of livelihoods rooted in agriculture and a continent where the "green revolution" was still an unfinished story. We found ourselves asking: Does staying committed to agriculture inherently doom a country to stagnant, low-value exports, or have we just been looking at agricultural development the wrong way? This paper is the result of our deep dive into that question. Our most significant "aha!" moment came when we separated the size of the agricultural sector from its efficiency. We realised that simply having a large farming population—as is the case in much of Sub-Saharan Africa—is indeed a drag on export diversification. However, the data told a different, more hopeful story regarding productivity. We discovered that when a farmer becomes more productive, it doesn't just improve food security; it actually sends a ripple effect through the entire trade profile of the nation, leading to more sophisticated and varied exports. To me, this work is more than just an econometric exercise; it is a call for a strategic shift. We shouldn't be choosing between the farm and the factory. Instead, we must recognise that a modern, high-productivity agricultural sector is the most reliable engine for industrial transformation. I hope this research encourages policymakers to stop viewing agriculture as a "poverty trap" and start seeing it as the primary launchpad for Africa’s entry into the high-value global market. Our goal was to provide the evidence needed to move from "farming for survival" to "farming for global competition."
Dr Archimède Mbogning Genang
Universite de Dschang
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Does agricultural development improve the structure of exports in Sub-Saharan Africa?, Journal of Economics and Development, February 2026, Emerald,
DOI: 10.1108/jed-02-2024-0057.
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