A model for predicting consumer choice to shop in a new grocery store using the Theory of Planned Behaviour

What is it about?

Gravity models and analogue store approaches are inadequate in predicting purchases in neighbourhood stores. This requires a new theoretical and empirically tested approach. We use the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) to determine which factors predict the choice for a new neighbourhood store. We develop a suitable model using a structural equation model with survey data from two cases in which all households in the catchment areas were surveyed both before and after the store opened. We find the Theory of Planned Behaviour to be appropriate for predicting store choice. Beliefs about one-stop shopping, social pressure from family members, and car availability are most important in explaining the intention to shop in the planned store. These factors also explain the actual shopping in this store after opening. Our model predicts store choice before a store opens. Using a two-wave survey, we avoid ex-post rationalisation and show that, at least in our cases, quality, price, and assortment do not predict store choice.

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