Accounting for the unaccountable – coping with COVID

What is it about?

What will be the economic effects of the Coronavirus 19 Pandemic of 2020? Will it be a blip on the screen or a lead-in to a full-blown recession or even a new depression? In trying to answer these questions, the silo-based nature of academic research can be frustrating. I attempt to answer these questions based on a variety of evidence drawn from economic history (e.g., the “Spanish flu” of 1918-19), pandemic economic models at several levels of abstraction (i.e., worldwide, regional, and country), and cost effectiveness of pandemic interventions (e.g. schools closures). The sources of the evidence vary from current “hot of the press” working papers and “think tank” papers; to published peer reviewed research in health economics and policy, crisis management, and economics; industry-based models (e.g., Swiss re.) and estimates regulatory agencies (e.g. US Federal Reserve). I summarize and interpret what prior research says in addition to identifying the key unknowns that could magnify or dilute the predicted effects.

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