Innovative application of strategic foresight to oncology research

What is it about?

The Ontario Institute for Cancer Research (OICR) develops a strategic plan every five years. In 2018, the Institute chose to conduct an exercise in strategic foresight before developing its next strategic plan in order to understand the landscape for cancer and cancer research over the following 20 years. OICR engaged the services of Strategic Foresight and Development, a consultancy that uses Framework Foresight (Hines & Bishop, 2013), a process developed in the graduate program in Foresight at the University of Houston to develop scenarios and their implications for clients and their industries. The process produced four scenarios: a Continuation scenario in which progress in detecting and treating cancer progressed as it has over the last few decades, a Collapse scenario in which attention was diverted from medical research due to a climate crisis, a New Equilibrium scenario in which cost became the overriding concern for cancer treatment, and a Transformation scenario in which individuals took control of their treatment through DIY remedies. These scenarios produced four overall implications: 1) the growing volume of genomic and clinical data and the means to learn from it, 2) the increased involvement and influence of patients in diagnosis and treatment, 3) the ability to conduct research in a time of fiscal austerity, and 4) declining levels of trust in all professions, including medicine. These implications have informed the process undertaken by OICR to develop its next strategic plan, and helped to shape the emerging priorities.

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