“I Hope I Get It”: impact of Tony Award nominations and wins on Broadway production longevity

Russell Thomas Warne
  • Arts and the Market, May 2018, Emerald
  • DOI: 10.1108/aam-06-2017-0013

Broadway shows stay open longer if they win the Tony Award for Best Musical

What is it about?

In this article, I compared the length of open-ended runs of Broadway plays and musicals to see of receiving a Tony Award nomination or win extended the show's run. I found that the Tony Award for Best Musical was the award most strongly associated with a longer run. Winning that Tony Award tripled a show's likelihood of remaining open. However, most awards and nominations had no statistically significant impact on the longevity of a Broadway production.

Why is it important?

Broadway theatre productions sell $1.3 billion in tickets and make a total contribution of over $12.5 billion to the New York City economy. Understanding the impact of the Tony Awards have on the length of a show's run can have economic benefits to artists, producers, and other individuals in the NYC theatre industry. Additionally, this article can help patrons understand when they should plan to see a production.


Dr Russell T. Warne (Author)
Utah Valley University

In my spare time, I'm a theatre critic. This is the third time I have written a scholarly article related to my hobby, and I'm pretty proud of this. In the process of conducting and publishing this study, I taught myself survival analysis and learned a lot of Broadway trivia. It was an interesting process (and fun, in a nerdy sort of way). This article has also made me toy with the idea of creating statistical models that can estimate mounting and running costs of Broadway shows (which is usually confidential). This could help me predict accurately when shows will break even and/or close.

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