Correlations in fertility across generations: can low fertility persist?

What is it about?

This paper demonstrates the possibility for a reversal of the twentieth-century decline in fertility. Mathematical modelling is used to study the consequences of intergenerational correlations in fertility—that is the phenomenon that children of large/small families tend to have large/small families themselves. We demonstrate how this association between parents’ and their children’s family size could result in a long term increase in population size.

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Why is it important?

Contrary to popular believes of a future decline of fertility and population size in developed countries we show how it over the long term fertility may increase.