Coupled catastrophes

What is it about?

Many systems have bistability and sudden changes (regime shifts, saddle-node bifurcations between them). Here we explore the effect of simple couplings between such systems. The result is that sudden shifts can spread locally like dominoes or even nonlocally by "hopping". We explore these ideas in data from the Arab Spring protests of 2010–2011.

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Why is it important?

Regime shifts are an important phenomenon in many social, economic, climactic, and ecological systems. Contagion of such regime shifts poses dangers and opportunities. Knowing that these regime shifts can spread nonlocally alerts us that sudden changes can have repercussions far away. This work may also shed light on the spread of protests in the Arab Spring (e.g., how influence to protest may have spread via central countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia that didn't undergo protests until much later).