The Effectiveness of Rocket Attacks and Defenses in Israel

What is it about?

Over 16,500 rockets have been fired at Israel since 2005. Israel responded by constructing bomb shelters and warning sirens; developing the Iron Dome interceptor system; and running three operations against the Gaza Strip. This research estimates those measures' effectiveness at reducing Israeli deaths, injuries, and damage from the rockets. The estimates suggest that interceptor deployment and civil defense improvements both reduced Israel’s losses slightly during Pillar of Defense and substantially during Protective Edge. They also imply that interceptor performance during Pillar of Defense may have been overstated. Ground offensives seemed the most expensive way to prevent rocket casualties. Interceptors were at least as cost-effective as military offensives and improved over time. Without its countermeasures, Israel’s rocket casualties could have been many times higher. These results imply that Israel’s rocket concerns were more justified than critics admit, but its military operations were less worthwhile than intended.

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Why is it important?

The Israeli operations against militants in the Gaza Strip have been controversial. The claimed performance of the Iron Dome interceptor system has also created controversy. This research provides some partial answers to those controversies. Both the interceptor systems and the military operations have cost Israel billions of dollars, some of it provided by the USA. Both also aim to save lives and prevent casualties. How well do the benefits justify the costs?

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