What is it about?
This concluding chapter discusses the theoretical and policy implications of the book's argument and empirical results. The theory of armed conflict outcomes developed attempts to unify previous theoretical work on the effects of military capability, resolve, and strategic selection on violent conflict outcomes. Recognizing how the utility of military force is dependent on the nature of one's political objectives will help leaders avoid steering their countries into wars that are unlikely to achieve their aims.
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This page is a summary of: Conclusion, July 2012, Oxford University Press (OUP),
DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199878338.003.0007.
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Resources
Military Intervention by Powerful States
The Military Intervention by Powerful States (MIPS) project develops a rigorous, generalizable measure of the effectiveness of military force as a policy instrument and applies the measure to code the outcomes of all military interventions conducted by five major powers since the termination of World War II. The MIPS dataset provides detailed data on US, British, Chinese, French, and Russian uses of military force against both state and non-state targets between 1946 and 2003. In particular, this project focuses on the political objectives strong states pursue through the use of force, the human and material cost of their military operations, and measures of intervention outcomes relative to the intervening states' objectives. The dataset also includes extensive data on factors commonly hypothesized to be associated with war outcomes, such as the nature of the target, the type of force used by the intervening state, and military aid and assistance provided to each side.
Who wins? : predicting strategic success and failure in armed conflict
Sullivan (public policy, Univ. of North Carolina, Chapel Hill) convincingly argues that war aims of interstate-dispute initiators and internal-conflict interveners play a more determinative role in who wins an armed conflict than most factors conventionally considered. A continuum of war aims is introduced, ranging from brute force (focusing on removing the target as a viable actor) to coercive (requiring the target's active compliance). Qualitative and quantitative data provide supporting evidence, creating a good example of mixed-methods research. Sullivan writes clearly throughout, making the book accessible beyond scholars and practitioners.
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