Open Populations Subject to Periodical Re-classifications

What is it about?

Considering open populations divided into sub-populations, we estimate, through confidence intervals, the probabilities of an individual belonging to each sub-population in any time period and in long run perspective, considering that each individual is periodically subject to a re-classification which may imply that he moves to another sub-population. We illustrate our model through the population of a Pension Funds beneficiaries. We estimate the proportion of individuals with each benefit.

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Why is it important?

We consider a Markov chain approach, allowing for entrances and departures on the population. Using ML estimates on the entrances to the population, we estimate state probabilities through confidence intervals.