What is it about?
Based on a nonhydrastatic axisymmetric hurricane model, the tangent linear and adjoint of the hurricane model were developed to formulate a 4D-Var assimilation system to incorporate real observations into the hurricane model. This study shows that the technique of 4D-Var assimilation can help to initializing realistic hurricane vortices by dynamically assimilating satellite observations.
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Why is it important?
By assimilating satellite-observed hurricane features into the model with time variations also accounted for by the 4D-Var technique, dramatic improvements of hurricane intensity forecasts can be seen. Hurricane intensity forecast has been a difficulty in the field of atmospheric science.
Perspectives
This study can be the door way to numerous future study projects, including: * sensitivity analysis with the adjoint of the hurricane model; * incorporating the initialized vortices into large models such as WRF or MPAS for better hurricane forecasts in both track and intensity.
Xiaoxu Tian
Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: A comprehensive 4D-Var vortex initialization using a nonhydrostatic axisymmetric TC model with convection accounted for, Tellus A Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, January 2019, Taylor & Francis,
DOI: 10.1080/16000870.2019.1653138.
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